Hi there – As we approach Thanksgiving, I wanted to take a moment to express my gratitude for the trust you place in our team. It is a privilege to help guide your financial journey, and I appreciate our partnership in working toward your goals.
With the holiday season ahead and an eventful 2024 nearly behind us, I am reaching out to share important insights about the markets and explain some tactical adjustments to investments. The current economic data points to noteworthy trends that may shape our approach for the months ahead.
Economic and Market Summary: November 2024
1. Economic Overview:
U.S. economic indicators suggest continued resilience, with GDP readings that appear to exceed long-term averages.
Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity. Indicators remain positive which may continue supporting economic growth.
The job market seems to be finding a balanced state: employment remains stable while wage growth appears to be moderating.
Inflation data indicates a stable trend, as measured by core PCE (the Fed's preferred measure).
2. Portfolio Updates:
Our analysis suggests increasing exposure to U.S. over international equities.
We added a small allocation to gold for diversification purposes as demand remains high from global central banks and it tends to do well in an easing rate environment.
Bond strategy adjustments include shifts toward shorter-duration holdings in anticipation of economic resilience.
U.S. equity markets appear to offer attractive opportunities, particularly among companies demonstrating recent momentum.
3. Business & Consumer Trends:
Recent surveys indicate many CEOs may increase capital spending following the election.
Similar surveys suggest small business owners are also considering new investments.
Corporate cash deployment may accelerate in coming months.
4. Interest Rates & Market Impact:
Federal Reserve policy may shift as inflation trends evolve, however current expectations are anticipating further rate reductions.
Employment data may support potential changes in monetary policy.
Historical analysis suggests markets often respond to rate adjustment cycles.
Fixed income markets appear to be pricing in potential policy changes.
5. Looking Forward:
Current conditions may provide a supportive environment for investors.
Post-election period might bring increased business investment.
Consumer activity appears well-positioned to support economic stability.
Market conditions suggest opportunities across multiple asset classes.
Source: BlackRock, Bloomberg. Metrics, rationale, and levels of concern are determined by iShares Investment Strategy research and analytics. Level of concern is generally determined using historical recession levels, on average. For illustrative purposes only. As of November 05, 2024.
These adjustments reflect our ongoing analysis of risk and opportunity. We maintain our long-term perspective while considering tactical positions based on current market conditions. As we move toward year-end, please do not hesitate to reach out with any questions about your overall financial strategy. I am here to help you understand these market developments and ensure your financial plan remains aligned with your goals.
Wishing you and your family a peaceful and joyful holiday season ahead.
Financial Advice is offered through Certus Wealth Management LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser.
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This material prepared by Certus Wealth Management, LLC (“Certus Wealth”) is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Opinions expressed by Certus Wealth are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Certus Wealth, however, cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Certus Wealth does not provide tax or legal advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as tax or legal advice.
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