Get insights into how your investment portfolios are positioned to balance economic realities with growth opportunities. See our latest insights and strategic shifts for Q3.
I hope summer is treating you well! Our family is looking forward to our annual 4th of July tradition of celebrating in Mount Shasta, where we drive the 1948 Chevy pickup truck in the parade with the kids tossing candy to the crowd. It's always a highlight of our summer.
July is shaping up to be an action-packed month for the Van Hofwegen family. Our oldest, Ivan, is home from college and has already started his summer job. Our youngest, Titus, is keeping busy with a variety of summer camps, while the twins are gearing up for a major milestone - starting high school in the fall. It's incredible how quickly they're growing up!
In this newsletter, you’ll find our Economic and Market Summary for Q3 2024. It provides insights into how we are positioning portfolios to navigate the current environment, balancing economic realities with opportunities for growth. As always, I continue to monitor the latest developments and stand ready to make strategic adjustments to keep your investments on track.
If you have any questions or would like to discuss your financial strategy in more detail, please reach out. My priority is to provide you with the guidance and support needed to achieve your unique financial goals.
Yours truly,
Economic & Market Summary: Q3 2024 Insights
The Economy
The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance appears to have become increasingly dovish in recent commentary, while market expectations are for one rate cut this year (down from six expected cuts at the start of 2024).
This shift in Fed tone underscores the resilience seen in corporate earnings and economic fundamentals, even as overall growth slows.
Portfolio Positioning In this environment, here are the key themes reflected across portfolios:
Stocks vs. Bonds
We are maintaining our overweight to equities compared to fixed income, aiming to capitalize on still attractive earnings growth.
U.S. vs. International
We continue to favor U.S. stocks over international, though we have slightly increased emerging markets exposure from underweight to a more neutral weighting.
Investment Style
Within equities, we are emphasizing growth stocks over value, supported by the continued trend of growth companies beating earnings estimates by a wider margin.
Large caps remain favored over small caps as we believe larger companies may be better positioned in the current economic cycle.
Fixed Income
With credit spreads staying tight vs. historical norms (meaning a relatively small yield gap between treasuries and corporate bonds), we expect higher quality fixed income to offer better risk/reward characteristics.
We are maintaining a more neutral portfolio duration while monitoring Fed policy closely for signs of a dovish pivot.
The overarching theme remains balancing near-term resilience with building positions for the next phase of the cycle. By emphasizing high-quality, growth-oriented equities while managing fixed income risk carefully, we believe portfolios are well-positioned for a range of economic scenarios.
As always, we are continually evaluating opportunities and risks, ready to adjust exposures as conditions evolve. Please don't hesitate to reach out with any questions about your specific financial plan and investment allocations.
Financial Advice is offered through Certus Wealth Management LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser.
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This material prepared by Certus Wealth Management, LLC (“Certus Wealth”) is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Opinions expressed by Certus Wealth are based on economic or market conditions at the time this material was written. Economies and markets fluctuate. Actual economic or market events may turn out differently than anticipated. Facts presented have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Certus Wealth, however, cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Certus Wealth does not provide tax or legal advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as tax or legal advice.
Certus Wealth Management, 1025 Alameda de las Pulgas, Ste. 102, Belmont, CA 94002, (650) 232-2023